80pc of Kenya faces above-average rains, prolonged wet spells

Jukwaa

📻 Breaking It Down

The outlook, presented during the 13th National Climate Outlook Forum on Wednesday, projects above-average rainfall across 80 per cent of the country, with rainfall expected to be fairly to well distributed over several areas.

KMSA said the October–December 2026 “Short Rains” season “will be marked by prolonged wet spells and occasional isolated storms over several parts of the country.”

The forecast comes as a strengthening El Niño event develops over the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, while the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) — a climate driver defined by the temperature difference between the western and eastern tropical Indian Ocean — remains neutral but is expected to move into its positive phase from September.

📌 What You Need to Know

KMSA said the latest weekly Niño 3.4 index, centred on August 12, had reached +2.7°C, indicating that El Niño is strengthening towards a very strong event.

The IOD stood at +0.17°C as of August 23, below the +0.4°C threshold required for a positive event.

KMSA expects the index to surpass the threshold from September, although uncertainty remains over the timing and strength of the shift.

“The current IOD value is expected to increase in magnitude and surpass the threshold from September 2026 although some uncertainty remains regarding its timing and strength,” the authority said.

The onset of the rains will vary across the country, with some western counties expected to continue receiving rainfall from September while most other areas will see the short rains begin between October and November.

Counties including Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori and Narok are expected to continue receiving rainfall from September, with the season extending into January.

📰 Source: Capital FM Kenya

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