NAIROBI, Kenya Oct 8 – El Niño is expected to reach its peak in December, with sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific forecast to hit record levels in what could become one of the strongest such events since at least 1950.

📻 Breaking It Down

The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) said the phenomenon is continuing to intensify and is expected to persist through February 2027, with its latest forecasts showing a near-100 per cent likelihood of its continuation during the period.

“El Niño is firmly established and strengthening rapidly,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said in the latest global seasonal climate update.

The agency said the Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomaly a key measure of El Niño conditions is forecast to reach approximately 3.7 degrees Celsius above average between October and December, peaking around December.

📌 What You Need to Know

If realised, this would be the highest level recorded since observations began and would surpass the previous record of 2.6°C, recorded between November 2015 and January 2016.

The strengthening El Niño is expected to influence weather patterns across the world, increasing the likelihood of extreme heat as well as shifting rainfall patterns, with some regions facing heightened risks of drought while others could experience flooding.

WMO forecasts indicate above-average temperatures across large parts of the globe during the October-December period. The agency cautioned, however, that the seasonal outlook does not mean every location will experience warmer conditions every day, but signals an increased likelihood of heat extremes.

The WMO projects a wetter-than-normal season across the Greater Horn of Africa, as well as parts of Central Asia, coastal East Asia, the northern Arabian Peninsula, parts of North America and southeastern South America.

Drier-than-normal conditions, meanwhile, are forecast over the Indian subcontinent, southern Central America, parts of the Caribbean and northwestern South America.

The agency said the current El Niño conditions are being reinforced by other oceanic patterns, including a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which is expected to peak in October before declining.

📰 Source: Capital FM Kenya