Kenyans should brace for massive displacements from the anticipated El Niño rains as a new Danish Refugee Council report warns up to 1.03 million people could be uprooted.

🇰🇪 Breaking It Down

The report shared with  Kenyans.co.ke on August 26 projects displacement figures ranging from 297,000 people under a Lower scenario to 564,000 under a Central scenario, with the worst case hitting slightly over one million.

These estimates largely coincide with the latest figures by the National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC), which estimates that approximately 500,000 people, hence, the Danish report numbers closely mirror what Kenya actually recorded during the October to December rains back in 2023.

“ Estimated displacement rises from approximately 297,000 people in the Lower scenario to 564,000 in the Central scenario and 1.03 million in the Severe scenario,” stated the report.

📌 What You Need to Know

The Tana River basin, encompassing counties such as Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Embu, Murang'a, Tharaka-Nithi, Garissa, Kitui, Tana River, Meru, and Lamu County, stands out as one of the most consistently at-risk areas, with surrounding settlements facing the brunt of riverine flooding.

Under the Central scenario alone, Bura in Tana River County is expected to record around 69,000 displacements, driven by rainfall both locally and further upstream.

Further north, Mandera and its neighbouring districts face a dangerous mix of river overflow and flash floods, with roughly 23,000 people displaced under moderate conditions and over 35,000 if conditions worsen.

Dadaab in Garissa County is not spared either, with about 46,000 displacements expected under Central conditions, a figure that could balloon past 90,000 should the Severe scenario play out.

Notably, the aforementioned areas have also been flagged by the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) i n their weather outlook dated August 26.

Beyond Kenya, Somalia faces by far the heaviest toll in the region, with projections climbing from 408,000 people to a staggering 1.8 million under the worst case.

📰 Source: Kenyans.co.ke