The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) has warned that most of East Africa is headed for a dry and hot June to September season, with Kenya likely to escape the worst projected rainfall.

🇰🇪 Breaking It Down

A new forecast released on May21 predicts below-normal rains across much of the region during the critical mid-year farming season that millions depend on.

South Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia, Djibouti, Eritrea, Sudan, and parts of western and coastal regions of Kenya are among the most affected zones, with rainfall deficits expected to hit hardest between June and September.

“The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) predicts a high likelihood of below-normal rainfall across much of the northern Greater Horn of Africa during the critical June–September rainy season, particularly in South Sudan, Uganda, Ethiopia, Djibouti, much of Eritrea, Sudan and western and coastal Kenya,” warned IGAD.

📌 What You Need to Know

For Kenya, the outlook is not uniformly gloomy. Southern parts of the country, such as Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu, Taita-Taveta, Kajiado, Narok, Machakos, Makueni, and Kitui County, are projected to receive near-normal rainfall, which is good news for farmers in those areas.

Additionally, northern parts of the country, such as Turkana, Marsabit, Samburu, Isiolo, Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, West Pokot, Baringo, and Laikipia County, are also expected to receive near-normal rainfall.

On the flipside, Western regions such as Kakamega, Vihiga, Busia, and Bungoma County, as well as coastal Kenya regions such as Kilifi, Mombasa, Tana River, Taita Taveta, and Malindi County are predicted to face a higher chance of below-normal rains, a greater concern for farmers in those agriculturally rich regions.

Temperatures are also set to climb above normal across much of the region, with northern Sudan, South Sudan, and Ethiopia expected to feel the most intense heat during the coming months.

The hardest-hit zone, according to the forecast, is northeastern Ethiopia, where the probability of below-normal rains peaks at 80 per cent, making it the region most urgently in need of early government intervention.

The forecast comes at a time when most regions of the country have experienced above-normal rainfall, a phenomenon that has resulted in the destruction of critical infrastructure, such as roads, and loss of lives.

📰 Source: Kenyans.co.ke