Kenyans should expect the effects of El Niño from October, with the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KEMSA) forecasting above-average rainfall during the October-November rainfall season.

🇰🇪 Breaking It Down

According to Head of Public Weather Services at Kenya Met, Hannah Kimani,  there is an 81 per cent chance that the 2026 El Niño will be very strong and a 97 per cent chance that it will persist into early 2027.

While releasing Kenya Met's preliminary weather outlook, Kimani said the country is likely to experience a shift from below-normal rainfall in the coming weeks to wetter-than-average conditions from October.

However, Hannah clarified that the strength of El Niño alone does not determine how much rain the country will receive.

📌 What You Need to Know

According to her, the amount of rain Kenya receives will depend on the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), a weather pattern caused by differences in ocean temperatures across the Indian Ocean.

The head of public weather services explained that the IOD can either strengthen or weaken the influence of El Niño on the country’s weather patterns.

For the August-September-October period, KEMSA forecasts depressed rainfall across the western half of the country, with many counties in western Kenya expected to receive below-average rainfall.

The outlook changes during the September-October-November season, when above-average rainfall is expected over most parts of Kenya, with Kenya Met saying the wetter conditions will increase from October and continue to November 2026.

Kenya Met also sought to dispel a common misconception by explaining that El Niño is not rainfall but a naturally occurring climate pattern in the tropical Pacific Ocean that occurs every two to seven years.

As the country braces for wetter conditions later in the year, the government has already begun preparing for the expected impacts of the El Niño on food security.

📰 Source: Kenyans.co.ke