The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) has raised an early alert over the anticipated El Niño, warning that the country could experience a sharp swing from dry conditions in mid-year to potentially heavy rainfall and flooding towards the end of the year.

🇰🇪 Breaking It Down

In a statement on June 9, the weather body said global climate models indicate an 80–82 per cent likelihood of El Niño developing during the June-August period, with probabilities rising to 90–96 per cent for the event to persist through the end of 2026.

According to the authority, the expected event is likely to be moderate and possibly strong.

"The Kenya Meteorological Department is closely monitoring global forecasts indicating the anticipated development of El Niño conditions in 2026, which could significantly influence weather patterns across the Country. Most models suggest the event will be at least moderate, and possibly strong," KMSA stated.

📌 What You Need to Know

"While forecasts remain subject to change as new climate data becomes available, there is an 80-82% likelihood of El Niño during June–August 2026, with probabilities near or above 90-96% for it to continue through the end of 2026. This phenomenon usually has varied impacts across Kenya and the East Africa region at large," it added.

The forecast, the department said, places Kenya on a split climate trajectory in which the impacts of El Niño are expected to vary significantly across seasons.

According to the outlook for the June–July–August season, large parts of the country are likely to experience near-average to below-average rainfall, particularly across the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley, and Northwestern Kenya.

Other regions, including much of the Southeastern and Northeastern parts of the country, are expected to remain generally sunny and dry, with warmer-than-average temperatures dominating most areas.

The Coast, on the other hand, is projected to receive near-average to slightly above-average rainfall, while areas such as Nairobi and the surrounding highlands may experience occasional cool and cloudy conditions with light rain.

Despite the drier mid-year outlook, the authority warned that conditions could shift in the October–November–December season, when El Niño is typically associated with enhanced rainfall across Kenya.

📰 Source: Kenyans.co.ke